Tuesday, December 3, 2013

THE ECONOMY IN 2014

Gold has been hit hard by a strengthening US economy.

On 2 December 2013, Gold stood at $1,218 a troy ounce.

Jim O’Neill, former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, thinks that the world economy will grow at a faster rate in the next decade than it did in the last one.

He says that the economic crisis around 2008 was essentially about the USA consuming too much and saving nothing, while China consumed very little and saved too much.

He says the USA is now far more competitive and multinationals are now moving back to the USA.

However, some economists think that the US stock market is currently overvalued.

(The US economy does better under Democratic presidents)

Stephanie Flanders, chief European market strategist at J P Morgan, thinks that the UK will be the fastest-growing country in Europe for at least the next five years.

However, some economists see a huge bubble in London house prices, and think that that bubble will eventually burst.

And, "as James Meadway of the New Economics Foundation puts it, 'this is definitely not the recovery the coalition wanted or forecast'.

"The breakdown of the latest growth figures showed that business investment - critical for rebuilding a new-style, more productive economy - is down by more than 6% year on year; exports are all but flat, despite the 20% fall in the value of the pound since the crisis; and manufacturing output remains 9% below where it was in 2008..."

Is Britain's economy really on the path to prosperity? - The Guardian

Martin Wolf, chief economic commentator at the Financial Times, thinks that the eurozone will break up, as the result of serious depressions in countries such as Spain and Italy.

Hélène Rey, Professor of economics at the London Business School, reminds us of the Asian crisis of 1997.

Lots of money flooded into countries like Thailand and Indonesia and then flooded out again, causing a crash.

Hélène Rey thinks that international capital flows are dangerous and should be controlled.

It has been argued that countries that avoid tough austerity measures do better than countries that impose tough austerity measures.

"Historians call Uruguay Latin America's 'first welfare state.'

"It was a pioneer in the early twentieth century on enacting public-health programs, public pensions

, and other forms of social assistance...

"An IMF staff report in January 2011 noted that 'Uruguay’s economy is booming,' that 'unemployment is at record lows,' and that some sectors were even experiencing 'labor shortages.'

"Uruguay's high taxes, equal to 29.1% of GDP, enable sturdy governmental support of certain lucrative export sectors..."

Five Economies That Work: Global Success Stories